Response to Sanctions Over Ukraine Would be ‘Serious Development,’ But U.S. Hasn’t Formally Heard Threat
Todd Jacobson
NS&D Monitor
3/14/2014
Russia has not directly told the United States that it could halt U.S. arms control inspections in response to sanctions over a disagreement about Ukraine, senior Obama Administration officials said this week. According to Russian news reports, Russia is considering disallowing nuclear weapons inspections that are part of arms control treaties with the United States, including the New START Treaty, in response to potential U.S. sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine. “The Russians haven’t said anything to us about that directly,” Deputy National Security Advisor Tony Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” over the weekend. “We haven’t seen any change in their practices. Obviously that would be a serious development. Inspections are an important part of arms control agreements. We’ve had arms control agreements with the Russians, and indeed with the Soviet Union, for decades. And throughout the ups and downs of the relationship, each side has made good on its commitment. So we’d expect to see Russia do that.”
Liz Sherwood-Randall, the White House Coordinator for Defense Policy, Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction and Arms Control, echoed those comments at a National Journal policy summit this week. “We expect the Russians will continue to abide by the arms control agreements they have reached with us,” Sherwood-Randall said. “These are in our mutual interests and we see no reasons that the tensions that exist over Ukraine should in any way obstruct the path toward fulfilling the commitments we have made with the Russians to reduce nuclear weapons on both sides.”
Sanctions to Have ‘Boomerang’ Effect?
The report, by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti, cited a source in Russia’s Defense Ministry, but the ministry hinted at its plans in a statement. “The unfounded threats towards Russia from the United States and NATO over its policy on Ukraine are seen by us as an unfriendly gesture,” the ministry said. Russia has repeatedly warned against U.S. sanctions, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warning Secretary of State John Kerry against “hasty and ill-considered steps capable of causing damage to the U.S.-Russian relations, especially sanctions that will inevitably hit the U.S. like a boomerang.” The New START Treaty provides for 18 inspections a year by each country, and the U.S. and Russia each conducted 54 inspections during the first three years of the treaty.
Despite the tensions, the two countries are continuing to cooperate in the lead-up to the Nuclear Security Summit, Sherwood-Randall said. Scheduled for the Netherlands March 24-25, the summit will be the third meeting of world leaders to deal with securing nuclear materials and safeguarding them from potential terrorists. “We continue to work toward this summit in The Hague with our Russian counterparts very effectively,” she said. “They’re important contributors to this process as a country that has a significant possession of both civilian and military nuclear material, and we expect this to be a very constructive summit in that domain as well.”
Official: Russia Should Respect Budapest Agreement
She also said the U.S. was still expecting Russia to abide by the terms of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. That agreement allowed Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union in exchange for a promise of sovereignty from Russia. At the time, Ukraine had the third largest nuclear stockpile in the world, with 176 long-range ballistic missiles, 42 strategic bombers and more than 1,800 nuclear warheads. “We are calling on Russia to abide by that commitment and the world is quite united in its expression of strong disapproval of the Russian current occupation of Crimea,” Sherwood-Randall said. “We have continued to point out to the Russians that they are a party to this agreement and have an obligation to respect it.”
Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball noted that Russia’s actions could have a detrimental impact on the strength of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. “Russia’s actions clearly undermine the security assurances of the Budapest Memorandum and, unless Russia returns its troops to their home bases and refrains from annexing Crimea, they will have a chilling effect on efforts to assure nonnuclear weapons states that their security will not be threatened by NPT nuclear weapon states,” Kimball wrote on the Arms Control Association’s website.
