The Supreme Court stay of the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan does not necessarily mean the schedule for state implementation of carbon emissions reductions plans will be significantly delayed when and if the rule survives legal challenge, the New York University School of Law Institute for Public Integrity said in a policy brief issued Wednesday.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on June 2 will hear oral arguments in the consolidated lawsuit that argues the Environmental Protection Agency has overstretched its authority in promulgating the rule setting specific emissions reductions for states. There is little if any doubt the case will ultimately reach the Supreme Court, and the stay will remain until the matter is resolved.
Opponents have argued that implementation milestones will need to be delayed, or “tolled,” in correspondence with the amount of time that passes until EPA can resume implementation of the Clean Power Plan. States face a number of deadlines during the process, with reductions currently scheduled to begin by 2022. The Institute for Public Integrity argued that power-sector carbon emissions that are falling independent of the rule – down close to 18 percent from 2005 levels as of late 2015 – means the ultimate goal of a 32 percent reduction by 2030 remains possible close to the envisioned timeline.
“Assuming these trends continue, there will be less coal-fired generation on the grid and more natural gas and renewable generation if and when the stay is lifted, compared to when the Clean Power Plan was finalized in 2015,” the analysis says. “This will likely make it feasible for the electric power sector to comply with the Plan with little or no tolling of the Plan’s deadlines.”
It notes that states can voluntarily continue to prepare for the rule even while the stay is in place. The EPA has said it will assist any state governments that choose to do so.
The Institute said it anticipated the D.C. Circuit appeals court would make any decisions on schedule updates should the lawsuit fail to undo the Clean Power Plan. That being the case, the court should take into account developments in the energy power industry that would offset any potential need for implementation delays, the policy brief says.