A group of experts and policy makers on Wednesday urged the incoming Donald Trump administration to make cuts to the U.S. nuclear arsenal and modernization program, along with adopting several nuclear policy changes. All the proposals are outlined in a new Ploughshares Fund report, 10 Big Nuclear Ideas for the Next President.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) repeated in the report their plea for cancellation of the controversial Long-Range Standoff (LRSO) nuclear cruise missile, arguing again that the dual-use weapon would increase the risk of miscalculation by an adversary and would take funding away from other nuclear programs and conventional capabilities.
Valerie Plame, a former covert Central Intelligence Agency operations officer famously outed during the George W. Bush administration, called for adoption of nuclear no-first-use and no-launch-on-warning policies and suggested that a large part of the arsenal could be eliminated for major cost savings: $238 billion over several decades by phasing out land-based ballistic missiles, and $20 billion by canceling the planned LRSO.
Sources previously told Arms Control Today that the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, the planned replacement for today’s Minuteman III ICBMs, would cost roughly $238 billion over its service life. The LRSO’s projected cost is between $20 billion and $30 billion.
Former Defense Secretary William Perry echoed the call to save hundreds of billions of dollars. He said the Pentagon’s plan to build a new class of nuclear-armed submarine, which “alone is sufficient for assured deterrence,” and the development of a new bomber, the B-21, as a backup to the submarines, offer enough accuracy to let the current Minuteman III ICBMs phase out upon reaching their end of service life by 2030.
Todd Harrison, director of defense budget analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted at a report launch event Wednesday that in terms of modernizing the nuclear triad, “the Trump administration does not actually have to add anything to the budget because those programs are already baked into it.” The U.S. nuclear modernization program is set to cost $1 trillion over 30 years.
On arms control, retired Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote in the report that the United States should reduce its nuclear forces regardless of Russia’s decisions on its own arsenal. The U.S. “should not strive to be numerically equal or superior to its adversaries across any of its force constructs,” he said, also arguing the new Trump administration should work to phase out land-based ballistic missiles and reduce the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,000.
Under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the U.S. and Russia are required by February 2018 to cap their nuclear arsenals at 700 deployed ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers; 1,550 fielded strategic warheads; and 800 deployed and nondeployed long-range launchers. Both sides have remained in compliance with the treaty and arsenal reductions have largely stayed on course.
Other ideas outlined in the report include a more democratic nuclear policy that would offer arsenal-related information to the public and involve legislators and experts in the crafting of the Defense Department’s next Nuclear Posture Review; the removal of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons from Europe due to security risks in light of recent terror attacks on the continent and the attempted coup in Turkey; a pause in U.S. missile defense plans in Europe; engagement with North Korea; a ban on the production of highly enriched uranium; and support for a global ban on nuclear weapons.
Thomas Countryman, acting undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, said at the launch event that challenges ahead for arms control and nonproliferation include continuing nuclear security and nonproliferation collaboration with the international community; a review of U.S. nuclear posture and the role of the nuclear deterrent; engagement with Russia on arms control; working with partners to address North Korea’s nuclear program and ensure Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon; and continuing the push for ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
