The consumption of energy derived from fossil fuels will increase in Canada through 2040, though at a slower pace than projected just 10 months ago, according to updated energy supply and demand projections released Wednesday by the National Energy Board. The board’s original forecast, titled Canada’s Energy Future 2016 (EF 2016), was released in January.
The report, which projects out to 2040, says “[w]hile fossil fuel use increases, the mix of fuels becomes less GHG-intensive, as the share of coal consumption decreases. Compared to EF 2016, fossil fuel consumption is 11 per cent, or almost 1,300 [petajoules] lower by 2040 in Update 2016.”
The update takes into account new provincial and national energy policies, but excludes the recently announced pan-Canadian carbon pricing plan. “The inclusion of these new polices could result in reduced fossil fuel consumption projections in upcoming Energy Future editions,” according to the report.
Coal energy generation is expected to decrease over the projection period, with very few coal-fired power stations remaining in service without carbon capture and storage. “Federal regulations result in the retirement of many coal facilities and this trend is accelerated by the planned phase-out of coal in Alberta by 2030. More than one third of the all coal consumed in Canada in 2040 is used by facilities in Saskatchewan that are enabled with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology,” the update says.