The National Nuclear Security Administration should better address concerns over the affordability of its nuclear modernization programs in future agency documents, the Government Accountability Office said in a report released Wednesday.
The report said the NNSA’s fiscal 2017 budget materials do not align with its modernization plans, “raising concerns about the affordability of NNSA’s planned portfolio of modernization programs.” It said the low end of the agency’s cost range estimates for some weapon refurbishments exceed the estimates made in other budget materials.
“For example, the W80-4 program’s low-range cost estimate for fiscal year 2017 exceeds the budget estimate by about $26.9 million,” according to congressional auditors, while the cost model estimates for the W76-1 life-extension program exceed budget estimates by $5.9 million in fiscal 2017, $57 million in fiscal 2019, and $80.5 million in fiscal 2020.
The report noted that because some programs’ budget estimates are billions of dollars below the funding the NNSA has identified needing from fiscal 2018 through 2021, the agency might have to defer some modernization work. It also said that NNSA’s modernization budget estimates for fiscal 2022 through 2026 may be higher than the out-year projections in the president’s fiscal 2017 budget for those years.
“According to NNSA’s data, the agency’s overall modernization budget estimates total about $58.4 billion for fiscal years 2022 through 2026, and the out-year funding projections from the President’s fiscal year 2017 budget for the same period total about $55.5 billion,” the report said, concluding that the NNSA’s estimated needs exceed the president’s funding projections by $2.9 billion.
Among several comments in response to the GAO’s findings, the NNSA said “its ability to execute its modernization plan under the current projections of future presidential budgets is manageable.” The GAO said in response that the agency might be overstating the affordability of these programs, particularly if they reach the high end of their cost ranges.
