Nuclear arms life-extension program (LEP) schedule and scope changes drove the largest increase in the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) budget estimates from fiscal 2015 to 2016, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found in a report released last Friday.
In its fiscal 2016 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan, the NNSA’s weapons activities budget estimate over 25 years of $297.6 billion was up from $293.4 billion in 2015, the report said. The largest increase was in the stockpile program area due to production schedule and scope changes, it said. The 2016 budget estimate of $117.2 billion over 25 years for the stockpile area was up 13.2 percent, or $13.7 billion, from the 2015 budget estimates. In particular, the 2016 budget included $49.8 billion to support life-extension programs over 25 years, an increase of 19.6 percent, or $8.2 billion, from the 2015 estimate.
The NNSA’s 2016 budget estimated the W88 Alteration 270 program would cost $2 billion over 25 years, up from the $1.2 billion estimated in 2015, the report said. The reason, it said, was in part due to a shift worth $15.1 million from the W76-1 LEP to the W88 to address the inclusion of a conventional high explosive replacement to the project. In another case, the report said the 2016 estimate for the B61-13 LEP worth $1.2 billion, meant to replace the B61-12 LEP, was not accounted for in the 2015 plan.
A shift in schedule to accommodate the Air Force led to an increase of around $1.5 billion between the NNSA’s 2015 and 2016 budget estimates for the cruise missile warhead LEP, the report said. Its first production unit was planned for 2025, it said, 2 years earlier than the plan in the 2015 estimate, causing a cost increase from $6.8 billion to $8.2 billion over 25 years. Meanwhile, B61-12 and W76-1 LEP budget estimates together decreased nearly $1 billion as the programs near their end.
Additionally, estimates for the IW – 1, 2, and 3 interoperable warhead LEPs increased $5.6 billion compared to the 2015 estimate due to an updated estimate methodology. Moreover, estimates for the IW-1 LEP depend on the status of the NNSA’s plutonium pit production capacity modernization, the report said. This suggests that the LEP costs may be higher than estimated in the event of delays in the NNSA’s modernization efforts.
In a response to the GAO report, NNSA Administrator Frank Klotz said “we will continue to enhance information on the potential effects of funding levels in budget supporting materials.”
