Congress should keep its eye on cost overruns for the software upgrade that will make the Air Force’s version of the F-35 fighter aircraft nuclear-capable this decade by allowing the Government Accountability Office to keep investigating the program for a few more years, the congressional investigator said this week.
The Block 4 package will eventually will allow new and existing F-35A variants, the Air Force’s version of Lockheed Martin’s Joint Strike Fighter, to carry nuclear weapons. The F-35A will for now get only internal carriage of a pair of B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs provided by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The bombs will use guided tail kits built by Boeing to give the weapon what the Air Force has called “modest standoff capability.”
Last year, the Pentgon said F-35A would achieve its initial nuclear certification around 2023. The Air Force’s 2021 budget request shows dual-capable aircraft costs stretching nearly until the end of the Block 4 program, which last year slipped two years into 2026. Dual-capable aircraft can carry both conventional and nuclear munitions. The service plans to acquire 1,763 of these aircraft, according to the Congressional Research Service.
The Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) chief concern in its Tuesday report on the F-35 was how the Pentagon would account for increased costs related to the replacement of Turkish-made components slated for use on the aircraft. Those components were banned after the U.S. last year prohibited NATO ally Turkey from purchasing the F-35 after the country acquired Russian missile defense systems.
However, the GAO did recommend the Pentagon “consider the results of its future technology readiness assessment of all Block 4 technologies and incorporate the cost and schedule risks of developing those technologies in the next update to its Block 4 cost estimate to ensure that the estimate meets the comprehensive leading practices.”
The Defense Department expects to pay around $410 million through fiscal 2025 to make F-35A dual capable, according to the Air Force’s latest budget request, including more than $70 million in the current 2020 budget year. For 2021, the peak spending year, the service seeks an increase to more than $105 million. These include the Block 4 software update, along with physical modifications to the aircraft, according to the budget request.
That is a tiny fraction of the overall cost for Block 4 development, which comes in at no less than $12 billion, according to the GAO report. That includes a $1.5 billion increase recognized in 2019, when the Block 4 schedule got pushed out. Existing F-35s of all types will get the Block 4 update in rolling upgrades across the fleets. Aircraft require the technical refresh-3 hardware package to accept the Block 4 software upgrade.
As things stand, GAO reports on the Block 4 upgrades “are slated to end in 2023,” Congress’ investigative arm stated in its latest periodic report on the effort. “Without continued Block 4 reporting through the development phase [which ends in 2026], Congress will lack important oversight information.”
NATO allies use dual-capable aircraft based in Europe to carry B61 bombs. The F-35A was seen as a replacement for some of those aircraft. Recently, the Federal Ministry of Defense of Germany — a key host nation — said it wants to buy Boeing-made F-15 aircraft for its nuclear-sharing mission. Those would replace some of Germany’s European-made, dual-capable Tornado aircraft. The German federal legislature would have to approve the buy. Germany has said it does not want to buy F-35s. Any NATO nuclear-sharing F-35s would be the F-35A variant.
Meanwhile, the NNSA is running a little behind its original schedule for production of the B61-12. However, it still plans to have the first production unit ready inspection by 2022: between a year and two later than planned, before the NNSA in 2019 delayed the milestone in order to replace some commercial capacitors deemed unsuitable for the weapon. A first production unit is a proof-of-concept copy that is taken apart and inspected to prove a design is ready for mass production.
The B61-12 will homogenize four existing versions of the bomb, which is the oldest deployed weapon in the U.S. arsenal. The NNSA plans to build some 480 B61-12 bombs, the nongovernmental Federation of American Scientists in Washington estimates. Including the NNSA’s roughly $9 billion share, B61-12 will cost about $13 billion over 20 years.
