Russia’s recent de-ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty goes against the global tide of embracing the pact that seeks to formally outlaw nuclear explosive testing, the head of the treaty’s governing body said this week.
There is significant international momentum in support of the treaty, which has nearly 200 signatories but has not yet officially entered into force, said Robert Floyd, executive secretary of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).
“We have 187 signatories … 177 ratifications, it used to be 178, but the reality is that in the last two years, there were eight new ratifications and one other country has signed and has yet to ratify,” Floyd said during a Thursday webinar hosted by the Arms Control Association. “I think by the end of next year, probably five more ratifications. Friends, this is the tide of humanity, towards this treaty and towards its universalization.”
The U.S. signed the CTBT but did not ratify it.
In speaking with Russian officials, Floyd said he is “heartened” to hear they remain committed to the bones of the treaty and that they have de-ratified, but have not withdrawn from the pact. They have no intention of “un-signing” the treaty, he said.
Russian officials said their commitment to a moratorium on testing and will not resume nuclear explosive testing unless the U.S. tests a nuclear weapon first, Floyd said. Russia is keenly aware of activity at the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) Nevada National Security Complex, where nuclear weapons have been tested in the past, he said.
The NNSA uses a vast underground complex at the Nevada Test Site to conduct subcritical explosive experiments to simulate nuclear blasts to evaluate the existing stockpile and test nuclear explosion detection equipment.
Russia hosts 32 nuclear explosion monitoring stations in its territory, of which 31 are in place and certified by the CTBTO, Floyd said. Russian officials will continue to transmit data from their monitoring stations of the international monitoring system to the CTBTO’s International Data Center, he said.
“That is evidence of them remaining committed, although very regrettably, only as a signatory state and not as a ratifying state,” he said.
When the International Monitoring System was developed, it aimed to detect any nuclear explosion with a 1 kiloton yield equivalent anywhere on Earth. That system is in place and can now detect explosions of about half a kiloton, Floyd said. It has detected fewer than a dozen tests since the treaty was signed 27 years ago, almost all were exploded by North Korea.
“I say to you that where we are at the moment is we’re heading towards a stronger and a stronger CTBT,” Floyd said. “Seeing the number of ratifying states dropped from 178 to 177 is regrettable. Our response to that is going to be that within months we will see back at 178 and then we will go to 179 and more.”
