Abby L. Harvey
GHG Monitor
11/13/2015
National commitments submitted to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for inclusion in the global climate agreement to be struck in Paris in December will get the world closer to meeting the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius, according to the latest Emissions Gap Report released by the U.N. Environment Programme. According to the Nov. 6 report, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), which will comprise the bulk of the upcoming agreement, represent GHG emission reductions of 4 to 6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (GtCO2e/yr) in 2030 compared to projected emissions under current policy trajectories.
The INDCs are public commitments indicating what each UNFCCC member state will do to fight climate change. The commitments have taken two different forms thus far: unconditional, in which the nation pledges to take action independent of any other variables, and conditional, which have been submitted by many developing countries, in which governments pledge to take action reliant on certain variables, such as financial support from other nations.
While the INDCs represent a step in the right direction, they are not nearly enough to deliver on the 2-degree goal. “Full implementation of unconditional INDC results in emission level estimates in 2030 that are most consistent with scenarios that limit global average temperature increase to below 3.5 °C until 2100 with a greater than 66 percent chance,” the report says. That temperature rise drops to less than 3-3.5 degrees if all conditional INDCs are also met.
“These numbers essentially tell two stories. Firstly the INDCs do present a real increase in the ambition level compared to a projection of current policies; all global modelling groups that have been assessed reached this conclusion. Secondly the submitted contributions are far from enough and the emissions gap in both 2025 and 2030 will be very significant,” the report says.
To capitalize on the positive momentum of the INDCs, the Paris agreement should include a systematic review process in which countries would analyze their emissions control progress on a regular basis and consider increasing their ambition, the report says. “The Paris Agreement can support these national transitions and provide the framework for mobilization of the enhanced mitigation effort that is required to align national efforts with the global mitigation ambition indicated by the 2 °C pathways. Establishing a robust, effective and transparent follow-up and review framework as part of the Paris Agreement will be critical in this context,” the report says.
Eleven G20 Countries Reduce Emissions
Annual per-capita GHG emissions have begun a downward trajectory in more than half of the G20 countries, according to a report released Tuesday by Climate Transparency, a group consisting of scientists and experts. “Half of G20 countries no longer show growth in energy-related CO2 emissions. Among countries with high per capita emissions, Saudi Arabia and Korea, Rep. are still increasing their emissions, whereas emissions are falling in the United States, Canada and Australia. Among countries with lower per capita emissions, India, China and Brazil all have high growth rates, while emissions are falling in the EU as a whole, and in some of its member states, in particular, such as France, Italy and the UK,” the report says.
