A recent review of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s refurbishment plans for the B61 nuclear bomb by the JASON Defense Advisory Group reveals no technical show-stoppers while suggesting that the biggest risks to the project involve money. “There are no radical new technologies being introduced into the NEP that cause JASON to have a significant technical concern about certification,” the group wrote in an August working paper delivered to the NNSA, which was obtained by NW&M Monitor. “Most of the uncertainty regarding the ability to execute this LEP [life extension program] appears to derive from unpredictable funding and the attendant risk to the 2019 FPU [First Production Unit] schedule, rather than unsettled military requirements or new and unproven technologies.” Funding, however, could prove to be a major issue for the program. Senate Energy and Water Appropriations Subcommittee chairwoman Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) revealed earlier this year that the estimated cost for the refurbishment effort has skyrocketed over the last year, reaching $7.9 billion according to an NNSA estimate and $10 billion according to a Pentagon assessment. In its Fiscal Year 2013 budget request, the NNSA said it was delaying the completion of a FPU on the bomb two years, until 2019.
The JASON review, however, raises some questions about exactly what is driving the cost increases. According to the review, the NNSA’s favored option—known as option 3B—is “considerably reduced in scope” from a previously preferred option. The JASON group said the refurbishment approach would “enable a significant reduction in DoD maintenance by lengthening the limited life component exchange interval” and includes “modest enhancements” to the bomb’s safety and security features. “The changes to the NEP projected in the 3B design are modest, prudent, and should enhance the maintainability of the refurbished B61 while providing relatively large performance margins of this system without putting at risk its already substantial safety and security capabilities,” the JASONs wrote.
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