While not offering an outright commitment that his nation will formally join the Paris climate change agreement this year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a visit to the White House Tuesday at least pledged to work toward that goal. “The United States reaffirms its commitment to join the Agreement as soon as possible this year. India similarly has begun its processes to work toward this shared objective,” according to a joint release from Modi and President Barack Obama.
What the announcement does not commit India to joining the accord in 2016, as had been hoped by environmentalists, the pledge in itself is more ambitious than New Delhi’s previous assumed timeline, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest told reports Tuesday. “It’s my understanding that that represents a more ambitious goal than India had previously laid out in terms of their timing of signing on to the agreement. So we obviously welcome that announcement,” Earnest said.
The Paris Agreement, the first international climate deal include both developed and developing nations, was adopted in December at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. India supported the deal in Paris and was one of 176 nations to sign the document on April 22, the very day it opened for signature.
India now has another important role to play in the future of the deal. The accord will take effect once joined by 55 nations representing at least 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Joining occurs when a nation ratifies the agreement through whatever means are required domestically. Currently, 17 nations representing only .04 percent of global emissions have joined the agreement.
An additional group of nations, including the U.S. and China, have committed to formally joining the agreement this year, to bring it into force as soon as possible. That group, along with those that have already joined, would put the total percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions represented to roughly 50 percent. If India, representing 4.1 percent of global emissions, were to join this year the agreement would be less than 1 percent from entry into force.
The issue preventing India from making a commitment to ratify the agreement in 2016 is the timing that will be required domestically, according to Earnest, a process not yet fully understood. “It’s more than just the prime minister himself signing on the dotted line,” he said. “So they’ll work through their process, but they are working through that process with an aim to complete it before the end of the year.”
India’s role this year is particularly important for a number of reasons. First, it is largely accepted that the European Union, which represents 28 nations in the deal, will not be able to join by the end of 2016, as all EU member nations must individually ratify the agreement first. The EU is the third-largest emitter in the agreement, behind China and the U.S., making it important that the other large emitters step up quickly.
Domestically, the Obama administration’s desire to see the agreement brought into force before its successor takes office is no surprise. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has been a vocal critic of the agreement, recently threatening to “cancel” it. If the agreement has not taken effect before the beginning of a potential Trump presidency in January, he could simply back out. However, once the agreement has entered into force there is a four-year waiting period for any nation wanting to exit. Thus, if India joins by the end of the year, helping to bring the deal into force before the next U.S. president takes office, the United States would effectively be locked into the agreement for a minimum of four years.
