Lance Moore
NS&D Monitor
7/10/2015
Russia is undergoing a full-scale process of rearmament and a costly modernization of strategic and non-strategic nuclear weapons programs, lagging behind the pace of U.S. modernization programs, according to a panel of nuclear experts, who in Washington yesterday said the slower pace discredits Putin’s recent nuclear posturing. The experts downplayed Putin’s words as mere political trumpeting of Russia’s status as a legitimate nuclear power. Pavel Baev, research director at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, joined Steven Pifer , Senior Fellow and Director of the Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative, and Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, for a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday.
Pifer said the threats are predicated on Russia’s race towards modernizing strategic and non-strategic nuclear programs such as the deploying new Bulava: SS-NX-32 submarine launched intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as other developing nuclear programs. However, he discredited any real validity to these threats, “I don’t think these threats are cause for great concern under two conditions: The U.S. and Russia continue to observe [New START], and the second is that the U.S. makes sure to maintain its own strategic force as both a developmental and precautionary measure.” Pifer added: “There are two things that leave me at ease regarding these threats. The Russians are simply playing catch-up on updating aging nuclear systems, as most of their modernization programs were put on hold after the fall of the Soviet Union in the ‘90s due to the Defense Ministry having zero funding. Secondly, momentum of the nuclear modernization cycles sees the U.S. greatly supersede that of Russia.”
It can be argued that the U.S’s claim of Russia violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty gives legitimacy to Putin’s threats of using nuclear force as a flexing of Russian nuclear muscle, to compensate for Russia’s lack of conventional military power, Pifer said. The 1987 INF Treaty bans the development and deployment of conventional and nuclear cruise missiles capable of hitting ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, and was brought to light during the Crimea crises and Russia’s recent threat to nuke the Danish Navy.
Kristensen responded to this argument by referencing statements Pifer had made earlier: “Putin is threatened by the strategic competition between the U.S. and Russia. As far as the increased rhetoric from Putin of using nuclear forces, Russia is in a state of catchup with regard to modernization as my colleague stated.” Baev also emphasized this sentiment, saying Russia needs to better allocate resources to match the speed of the modernization process, for these threats to hold real concern for the U.S. and its allies in Europe.
