If all the nations that have said they will ratify the Paris Agreement on climate change by the end of the year do so it could into force before 2017, according to the latest projection from Climate Analytics. Based on ratifications to date (22), national statements and indications given to a high level meeting on early ratification in New York on Friday 22 April and other information, it is estimated that at least 57 countries are likely to have ratified the Paris Agreement by the end of 2016, accounting for 59.88% of global emissions,” the projection says.
Entry into force of the Paris Agreement is a three-step process. Nearly 200 nations adopted the agreement in December at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At U.N. headquarters in New York on April 22, 175 nations then signed the accord. Now nations need to ratify the agreement.
The deal will enter into force 30 days after 55 nations representing at least 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession with the U.N. If the 55-55 requirement is met in December, the agreement would then enter into force in January 2017 at the latest, as suggested by the Climate Analytics data. At this point, 22 parties representing 1.08 percent of emissions have taken this step.
The world’s top emitters, China and the United States, have said they will ratify the agreement by the end of the year, which would move the dial significantly. India, the world’s No. 3 emitter, has signaled its intention to try to ratify before 2017, but its pledge is not sufficiently clear for Climate Analytics to include the nation in its calculations.
The Climate Analytics projection is based on statements and pledges made by a long list of nations that have not yet ratified the accord: Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Bahamas, Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Comoros, Costa Rica, Ghana, Honduras, Indonesia, Iran, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mali, Mexico, Micronesia, Monaco, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Ukraine, the United States, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.
Upon entry into force, the Paris Agreement would require its member states to submit “nationally determined contributions” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and counter global temperature rise.
