RAND Report: DoD Could Need $500B over Next Eight Years to Complete Nuke Modernization

From fiscal 2016 to 2023, the Defense Department base account could require a total of $500 billion above Budget Control Act (BCA)-permitted funding levels to comprehensively modernize U.S. nuclear forces and support other key missions, according to a recently released RAND study on national security. “Choices for America in a Turbulent World” outlines an average annual increase of approximately $50 billion above the BCA line over those eight years. The BCA limits base Pentagon funding to $499 billion for fiscal 2016.

 

That scenario would finance full-scale triad modernization and would simultaneously support a 70,000-person counterterrorism/special operations force, preserve a “two war” posture, “selectively” update counter-anti-access/area-denial capabilities, and would boost the military to full readiness by 2017, RAND stated. The situation would result in the U.S. spending approximately 2.5 percent of its GDP on defense in fiscal 2024, according to the report. The U.S. currently spends about 3.8 percent of its GDP on defense. “To put it plainly, America’s credibility and influence internationally, the safety and security of its nuclear arsenal, and the viability of its all-volunteer force could all erode if [base] defense spending is held to [$614 billion or lower],” the report states. The extent of nuclear modernization that could be supported by a yearly base Pentagon funding level of less than $615 billion is unclear, the report indicates.