Ending fossil fuel leasing on federal lands and cutting off renewals of non-producing leases would help the U.S. get closer to its international climate goals, according to a new report from the Stockholm Environment Institute. Taking a “keep it in the ground” stance toward fossil fuel extraction on federal lands would “send national coal production on a declining pathway, potentially to levels more consistent with a 2°C pathway for U.S. coal extraction. Such an action could leave 4 billion short tons of federal coal in the ground that otherwise would be combusted between now and 2040, equivalent to about 7 Gt of CO2 emissions,” the report says.
According to the study, if federal leasing continues unabated, 40 percent of coal and 25 percent of all fossil fuel extraction will occur on federal lands by 2040. Implementation of the Clean Power Plan, carbon emissions standards for existing coal-fired power plants, would drive down overall coal production, but would be offset by increased oil and gas production.
“To be consistent with the goal of keeping global warming below 2°C, the U.S. would need to cut aggregate fossil fuel production by 40–60 [percent] from current levels by 2040,” the report says. “Under current policies, however (including the Clean Power Plan), production is expected to rise by 11 [percent].”
The Interior Department announced in mid-January it would issue no new coal leases on federal lands while completing a programmatic environmental impact statement (PEIS) of the U.S. coal leasing program. The review is intended to determine if the program is properly structured to provide a fair return to taxpayers, reflects its impacts on the environment, and will continue to help meet the nation’s energy needs. The agency last conducted a PEIS for the federal coal program in 1983-1984. That review process also included a pause on coal leasing, as did the previous four. Currently, approximately 41 percent of the nation’s annual coal production comes from federal land.