Congressional defense authorizers would prohibit a reduction in U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles below 400, and the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) wants initial operational capability (IOC) for the LGM-35A Sentinel future ICBM by fiscal 2033.
The IOC for the LGM-35A Sentinel future ICBM by Northrop Grumman is more than four years past what the U.S. Air Force had aimed for–May 2029–before Sentinel’s critical Nunn-McCurdy cost breach in January last year.
“Not later than September 30, 2033, and subject to the availability of appropriations for such purpose, the secretary of defense, acting through the secretary of the Air Force, shall ensure the LGM-35A Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) weapon system achieves initial operational capability, as defined jointly by the commander of United States Strategic Command and the Commander of Air Force Global Strike Command,” according to the SASC’s fiscal 2026 defense authorization bill.
Nuclear analysts have said the lapse in the U.S.-Russia New Start Treaty next February could lead to a rethinking of minimum deterrence levels for the U.S. and whether multiple independent re-entry vehicles on fewer missiles will be a way forward for the ICBM force. The Air Force has operated under the minimum deterrence rubric of 400 Minuteman III operational missiles with 50 in reserve.
The House and Senate defense authorizers’ language thus far heads off that rethinking.
On Jan. 18 last year, the service said that it notified Congress that Sentinel had breached Nunn-McCurdy guidelines, primarily due to construction design changes, and then DoD acquisition chief William LaPlante ordered a root-cause analysis. The latter led last summer to the DoD decision to continue the program, due to its stated importance to strategic deterrence, but also to the rescinding of the Sentinel Milestone B engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) go-ahead from 2020.
Last summer, the Air Force pegged Sentinel cost at $140.9 billion, 81% higher than the September 2020 estimate when the program was approved for EMD–a rise that DoD said has less to do with the missile than the command-and-control segment, including silos, launch centers, “and the process, duration, staffing, and facilities to execute the conversion from Minuteman III to Sentinel.”
Air Force plans have called for a Sentinel launch center for at least 24 of the missile alert facilities and for 3,100 miles of new utility corridor for Sentinel.
The civil works for Sentinel may also include hardening silos to account for improved accuracy of Russian and Chinese nuclear missiles.
In late March and early April, Air Force leaders held community town halls in Kimball, Neb.; Pine Bluffs, Wyo., and Raymer, Colo., at which the service said that it would build new silos for Sentinel, which has a significantly larger design than its predecessor 1960s-era Minuteman missile series. The service had planned to renovate the 450 Minuteman silos for Sentinel.
SASC’s fiscal 2026 bill would require the Air Force to sustain at least 450 silos for Minuteman III.
This article was originally published in Exchange Monitor affiliate Defense Daily.
