SHELL MODELING EXAMINES TWO ENERGY SCENARIOS THROUGH 2100

Tamar Hallerman
GHG Monitor
3/1/13

Two energy scenarios released this week by Royal Dutch Shell predict that carbon capture and storage technology will be widely deployed in the power sector by the end of the century, but each estimate differs as to when that adoption will occur. Shell unveiled its most recent batch of energy modeling known as its New Lens Scenarios this week. The analysis examines two potential global energy pathways through 2100, taking into account different assumptions regarding international political and economic forces and, subsequently, the energy mix most likely to be used. “These scenarios show how the choices made by governments, businesses and individuals in the next few years will have a major impact on the way the future unfolds,” Shell CEO Peter Voser said in a statement. “They highlight the need for business and government to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy and improve energy efficiency.”

‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’

The first scenario, ‘Mountains,’ works off the assumption that the status quo for power generation is locked in for the rest of the century and that "stability is the highest prize" as far as energy resources are concerned. Under that scenario, natural gas quickly becomes the backbone of the electricity system as tight and shale gas, as well as coal bed methane extraction, becomes more widely utilized, according to Shell. That modeling predicts that even though coal is rapidly displaced by gas worldwide, supply-side incentives cause CCS to “blossom,” with the technology capturing more than 30 percent of the world’s emissions by 2050 and 75 percent by 2075. “This success enables coal to be reintroduced later when the next wave of emerging economies cause demand to surge once again,” the report states. “CCS is also applied to power generation from biomass. The production of second-generation biofuels contributes ‘negative emissions’ into the system and begins the process of actually reducing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”Shell said it expects the technology to help decarbonize the electricity sector by 2060.

‘Oceans,’ the second scenario, assumes a “more prosperous and volatile world,” where energy demand surges, political power is more dispersed and market forces have more of an impact on the world’s electricity system. That pathway sees oil and solar as the world’s most dominant energy technologies. While higher prices in the oil sector initially help spur the creation of new extraction technologies, spikes also lead to the expansion of renewables and biofuels. Shell estimates that by 2070, solar photovoltaic panels notably become the world’s largest primary source of energy. Under the ‘Oceans’ scenario, though, there is little incentive to limit emissions from fossil energy sources, especially coal, which also remains cheap. Shell estimates that by mid-century an increase of extreme weather events will ultimately drive policy changes that incentivize technologies like CCS. However, the deployment of CCS is much slower than in the ‘Mountains’ scenario. “By mid-century, CCS captures only about 10 percent of emissions, growing to about 25 percent in 2075,” according to the report. “This slow uptake is the main reason electricity generation becomes carbon-neutral some 30 years later in the ‘Oceans’ scenario than in the ‘Mountains’ scenario.”

While both scenarios predict that global CO2 emissions will drop to near-zero by the end of the century, global temperature increases in both scenarios will overshoot the 2 degree Celsius limit as established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, according to the analysis.