The nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia continue to fluctuate as the two countries work to meet the terms of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), according to the latest aggregate data released Monday by the U.S. State Department.
The bilateral accord requires each country by next February to cap its nuclear arsenal at 700 deployed ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers; 1,550 fielded strategic warheads; and 800 deployed and nondeployed long-range launchers.
The April 1 update, containing data declared as of March 1, says that since the last numbers were released – with data declared as of September 2016 – the United States has reduced its fleet of deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers from 681 to 673; Russia increased its number from 508 to 523.
During that time the United States increased its count of deployed strategic warheads from 1,367 to 1,411; Russia decreased its own from 1,796 to 1,765. Meanwhile, the U.S. cut back the number of deployed and nondeployed long-range delivery systems from 848 to 820, while Russia did so from 847 to 816.
Some fluctuation in each side’s numbers is expected and generally not considered problematic for strategic stability between the two nations. Pavel Podvig, an independent researcher who heads the Russian Nuclear Forces project, said by email that “largely, the numbers tell us that it’s business as usual.”
The fluctuations, he said, result from a U.S. ballistic missile submarine overhaul that began in 2015. Four ballistic missile launch tubes on each Ohio-class nuclear submarine are set to be deactivated by next February so that each boat will carry 20 missiles instead of 24, to comply with New START numbers for both warheads and operational launchers.
“Russia, as far as I can tell, continues to deploy ICBMs and SLBMs, so the numbers go up, but at some point it will probably remove some old SS-18 missiles from service, so it will come under the treaty limit,” Podvig said. The Russians’ SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missile can carry up to 10 nuclear warheads.
Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project for the Federation of American Scientists, has previously also said fluctuations are temporary as the two countries carry out their nuclear modernization programs.
In a new blog post he said the slight U.S. increase in deployed strategic warheads “does not represent a buildup . . . but a fluctuation caused by the force loading on the Ohio-class SSBNs.” The U.S. can still add 139 additional warheads by next February, according to treaty limits, he said. Meanwhile, Russia will need to cut its number of deployed warheads by another 215 to meet the limits, which Kristensen said “will not be a problem.”
Kristensen noted that the United States has cut 209 deployed strategic launchers from its arsenal since the treaty was signed in 2011; Russia has eliminated 49 total launchers during that time.
“The US reduction has been achieved by stripping essentially all excess bombers of nuclear equipment, reducing the ICBM force to roughly 400, and making significant progress on reducing the number of launch tubes on each SSBN from 24 to 20,” Kristensen wrote.
The Trump administration will be responsible for deciding whether to negotiate a follow-on to New START when it expires in 2021; extend the treaty for an additional five years, which the accord text allows; or abandon it entirely.
Questions have been raised over the administration’s intentions toward New START following reports earlier this year that President Donald Trump called it an unfair agreement in January during his first telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Even so, U.S. military officials continue to support the treaty, arguing that it benefits the United States to have such a window into the Russian nuclear arsenal.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly said late last month his country is ready to discuss further arsenal reductions with the United States, as long as negotiations go beyond strategic offensive weapon systems – a reference to the U.S. ballistic missile defenses that Russia has long sought to address.
