Todd Jacobson
NS&D Monitor
2/20/2015
Despite growing tensions between the United States and Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller said this week the Obama Administration won’t be swayed from continuing to pursue its arms control agenda with Moscow. “The situation in Ukraine is quite terrible, honestly, and some say arms control thus must be moved or should be moved to the back burner,” Gottemoeller said at the Seventh Annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit, held in Washington. “They are wrong in my view. It is times like these that show us how well arms control can work. Arms control measures provide stability and predictability even when other things fall into disarray.”
The prospects for arms control progress with Russia in the near-term continue to appear dim, however. Gottemoeller was joined at the Nuclear Deterrence Summit by Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak, and while Kislyak said Russia, too, values arms control, he also said it did not value “selective arms control that is sometimes proposed by our American friends.” Even before tensions over Ukraine escalated, Russia balked at proposals by President Obama to pursue reductions to one-third of the 1,550-warhead cap established by the New START Treaty. Russia has said it isn’t interested in talking about nuclear weapons reductions without bringing issues like ballistic missile defense and prompt global strike into discussion. “When it comes to strategic offensive weapons we also see a tendency here in the United States to work toward a less reliance on nuclear weapons in favor of an introduction of more conventional weapons that will effectively be accomplishing the same missions that are currently assigned to nuclear weapons,” Kislyak said.
Kislyak, Gottemoeller Trade Accusations on INF Treaty
Kislyak and Gottemoeller traded accusations over the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty as well. The United States formally accused Russia of violating the pact last year, but Kislyak said the U.S. had also violated the treaty through the targets it uses for ballistic missile defense tests. Kislyak also called the allegations that Russia was violating the treaty “inconcrete.” He said: “It’s not easy to locate the point where Americans want us to focus on. Because it’s very vague and the way it was … presented to us is we the Russians need to know better as to where we violated the treaty. We do not know. We did not violate the treaty.”
Gottemoeller, however, said the U.S. had not been vague in its accusations. “It is quite specific. It is a ground-launched cruise missile that has been tested to intermediate ranges in contravention of the treaty,” she said. “We have been very clear about this and we have been very clear in providing additional information about it.” Gottemoeller said the U.S. and Russia continue to discuss arms control, and she called the talks “business-like and problem-solving.”
New START Not Likely in Jeopardy
Both Gottemoeller and Kislyak emphasized the value of the New START Treaty despite the increasing tensions that make future arms control agreements unlikely. New START is “indeed enhancing strategic stability between the United States and Russia,” Gottemoeller said. “Both nations have been faithfully implementing the treaty’s inspection regime. Current tensions with the Russian Federation highlight the durability of the verification regime and the important confidence it provides including through data exchanges and the onsite inspections under the treaty as well as the security and predictability that the overall verification system provides. … At a time when trust has become difficult, New START allows us to verify.”
Kislyak said even with the current tensions between the countries “we are not back in the Cold War.” He added: “What I define as the issues we are thinking about in terms of Russian security is risks and immediate threats and I don’t foresee developments—I hope I am right—that would force at least Russia to reconsider its commitment to the New START Treaty. It’s a very serious undertaking and we are taking it seriously.”
Arms Control—But Years Away
Eventually, the two sides will come together for more arms control negotiations when New START expires in 2021, because Russia will want to maintain strategic stability with the United States, former National Nuclear Security Administration chief and START Treaty negotiator Linton Brooks said at the Nuclear Deterrence Summit Feb. 20. “There’s an opportunity for arms control but it’s several years in the future,” Brooks said, adding: “Arms control doesn’t require good relations. Arms control among states with good relations is really sort of irrelevant. Arms control is a tool to regulate competition.”
Brooks said for those reasons Russia would also likely remain a party to the New START Treaty. “They are not interested in going back to an arms race which they couldn’t win last time,” Brooks said. “I think the New START Treaty is likely to remain in their interests because they like the idea that we’re constrained.”
