US CTBT Ratification Remains Unlikely, Nonpro Expert Says

U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is unlikely in the near future, according to Amb. Thomas Graham, a leading expert on nuclear non-proliferation and former special representative of the president of the United States for arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament from 1994-1997. During a Friday talk entitled “Ending Nuclear Explosive Testing” at George Washington University in Washington, Graham noted that “The president is strongly for ratification and entry into force of the test ban, but his administration has never done anything about it, not because people in the administration don’t want to, but because the president himself has never been willing to lead on it,” Graham said. “This is not intended as a criticism. He had a few other things to deal with over the years.”

 

Already ratified by 36 countries, the CTBT must be ratified by eight more states, including the U.S., to become legally binding. The Senate blocked CTBT ratification in 1999, and Graham said he expects the legislation to sit on the U.S.’ table for the next few years unless Hillary Clinton or a comparable is elected president in 2016 and prioritizes pushing the legislation through the Senate during the first year of their administration while offering concessions to several Republican senators. “Then, yes, it could happen,” Graham said. “But that’s a big reach.”