Brian Bradley
NS&D Monitor
2/13/2015
A joint statement issued by from participants of the P5 Conference in London last week reaffirming “a step-by-step approach to nuclear disarmament that promotes international stability, peace and undiminished and increased security for all” as the only realistic disarmament mechanism has prompted at least one disarmament advocate to ask for clarification. On Feb. 6, following the release of the statement, Arms Control Association (ACA) Director Daryl Kimball tweeted:
NWS at P5 Conf. sppt "step-by-step" process on disarmament https://www.gov.uk/government/new… Plz define step-by-step? Which steps? When? How? @USNPT
The P5 nations convened Feb. 4-5 in London in preparation for the 2015 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon), which will be held April 27-May 22 at United Nations Headquarters in New York. Kimball’s words come at a time when four of the NPT Nuclear-Weapon States (NWS)—the U.S., Russia, United Kingdom and China—are undergoing or planning to start wide-scale modernization of their nuclear deterrents. Kimball’s comment also echoes other voices in the nonproliferation arms control advocates which have recently criticized the P5 process as moving too slowly in preparation for the 2015 RevCon, where parties to the NPT will discuss progress on non-proliferation, disarmament and peaceful uses of nuclear technology. “It’s difficult to see a path forward when the five Nuclear Weapons States can’t agree on how to proceed,” Des Browne, Vice Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and former U.K. Secretary of State for Defence, said at ACA’s annual meeting in October.
NWS Passes Over Disarmament Timeline, 2010 RevCon Showed Divergent Viewpoints
Disagreements between nations surfaced during the last RevCon in 2010. The NPT Non-Nuclear Weapons States (NNWS) pressed the NWS to establish a clear disarmament timeline. In response, the NWS maintained that they had not gotten enough credit for steps taken since the Cold War, and emphasized that all NPT states should undertake key obligations to ensure the formulation of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) and entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). The U.S. and Russia also pushed back against attempts to insert language in conference documents related to non-strategic nuclear weapons, with Russia emphasizing that it would not start such negotiations until the U.S. had withdrawn all of its estimated 200 NATO-backed tactical nukes from Eastern Europe. Furthermore, China blocked a proposal calling for the NWS to halt all production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium pending an FMCT.
‘No Consensus’ about Implementation of NPT Action Plan
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, Director of the International Organizations & Nonproliferation Program (IONP) at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said during the ACA conference that the last three NPT Preparatory Committee meetings—in 2012, 2013 and 2014—showed a deepening frustration with the lack of implementation of the disarmament pillar of the NPT, after participants previously held that implementation of that pillar was successful. “That said, there is no consensus among states parties about what constitutes the appropriate pace of implementation of the action plan,” Mukhatzhanova said. “And there, the divergences have been growing and got very pronounced at the last preparatory committee meeting in May….I can still see that nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states view the action plan very differently.” She said that NWS have emphasized the only path forward as a long-term “road map,” while NNWS want more urgency.
U.S. Highlights from London Conference
Last week’s London conference included a briefing on New START, which Frank Rose, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Defense Policy and Verification Operations, said has offered a total of 72 U.S. inspections of Russian facilities and a transparent look into the movement of Russian strategic forces. Also, Rose Gottemoeller, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, announced that the International Partnership for Nuclear Disarmament Verification’s first meeting will take place March 19-20 in Washington. The partnership was created to join nuclear weapon states with non-nuclear weapon states to address nuclear disarmament verification challenges. The U.S. believes the framework will strengthen ongoing work toward NPT goals, “while furthering the role of NNWS in the challenging work of verification of nuclear disarmament,” according to a State Department fact sheet. The department is partnering with the U.S.-based Nuclear Threat Initiative, which is helping to develop and implement a program of work.
2015 London Joint Statement
The joint statement from last week’s London conference called upon all NPT parties to observe their respective national moratoria on nuclear explosions, and reiterated participants’ collective commitment to take “concrete steps” toward CTBT entry into force. While the P5 expressed disappointment over the “long-standing lack of consensus on a Programme of Work” in the Conference on Disarmament, the states also signaled full support for the United Nations’ disarmament machinery, including the CD and the Disarmament Commission. P5 states also continued to support an inclusion of FMCT negotiations in any future Programme of Work. For the first time ever, many NNWS were invited to the P5 Conference for a briefing and discussion. France offered to host the next P5 Conference.
