The cost to replace the Air Force’s aging aircraft fleet and build new advanced jets is only expected to rise over the next three decades, averaging between $15 billion and $23 billion through 2040, according to a new Congressional Budget Office report.
The CBO report, titled “The Cost of Replacing Today’s Air Force Fleet” and released Dec. 11, projects that the cost of procuring new Air Force aircraft will surpass $15 billion in the mid- to late-2020s, peaking at around $26 billion in 2033.
“Costs of procuring new aircraft would not fall below $20 billion until 2039 and would remain above typical historical levels past 2045,” the report said.
These projections are significantly higher than procurement costs in more recent years: Between 2010 and 2017, the Air Force averaged about $9 billion for new aircraft procurement and about $12 billion between 1980 and 2017, including the years of buildup under President Ronald Reagan, the report said.
The Air Force’s appropriations for new aircraft buys topped off in 1986, at about $29 billion, and CBO does not anticipate costs reaching that level.
Even if the service modified current retirement plans and replacement schedules to “smooth out” the 2033 peak, the CBO still projects the average annual costs for procuring new aircraft to be around $15 billion in the 2020s, $23 billion in the 2030s and $15 billion in 2040s. The report was conducted using constant 2018 dollars.
The $26 billion spike in 2033 would be largely due to the hefty price tags of the B-21 bomber, being built by Northrop Grumman [NOC], the Lockheed Martin [LMT]-made F-35A Joint Strike Fighter and a proposed “penetrating counter air” (PCA) aircraft that could replace the Air Force’s F-15C/D fleet and its F-22 jets.
CBO’s estimate includes 35 different replacement systems, but six programs cover over 85 percent of the projected costs of procuring new aircraft, the report said. Those include the F-35A, the PCA aircraft, the KC-46 next-generation tanker in development by Boeing [BA], the B-21 bomber, a C-17 replacement cargo aircraft, and the C-130J cargo aircraft.