The share of coal in national energy production may surpass natural gas this winter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced Friday. “Based on expected temperatures and market conditions, coal is expected to surpass natural gas as the most common electricity generating fuel in December, January, and February,” according to an EIA release.
Natural gas overtook coal in April 2015 as the nation’s most used fuel for electricity generation and has supplied more energy than coal most months since, due largely to low natural gas prices. However, natural gas prices have started to rise. According the EIA, the cost of natural gas averaged $21.30 per megawatt hour in August, nearly identical to the cost of coal. “The higher costs of natural gas relative to coal are likely to encourage the industry to use more coal to fuel electricity generation than in the recent past,” the report says. “Forecast cooler winter temperatures, especially in areas where coal is dominant, also contribute to higher projected coal use in power generation.”
However, EIA said, “If winter temperatures end up warmer than forecast, natural gas prices would likely stay low, which would reduce the incentive to use more coal-fired generation.”