Abby L. Harvey
GHG Monitor
10/30/2015
In the latest draft text of the global climate agreement being negotiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, negotiators have left some key issues to be dealt with at the last opportunity, in Paris. The agreement is hoped to be finalized at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in December where many key issues, such as financing, the legal nature of the deal, and the shared responsibilities between developed and developing nations, will have to be addressed.
The draft, released after five days of negotiating in Bonn, Germany, last week, is the last before COP21. Similarly to previous drafts, the text is riddled with bracketed language to be negotiated in Paris. For example, the purpose of the agreement remains undecided. “The purpose of this Agreement is [to [enhance the implementation of the Convention and] to achieve [its] objective [of the Convention] as stated in its Article 2,” the text says.
Even the targeted goal of the accord has not been agreed upon in the draft, which says parties to the agreement should work to “hold the increase in the global average temperature [below 2 °C][below 1.5 °C][well below 2 °C][below 2 °C or 1.5 °C] [below 1.5 °C or 2 °C][as far below 2°C as possible] above pre-industrial levels by ensuring deep cuts in global greenhouse gas [net] emissions.”
The lack of certainty on many key issues has been disheartening for some environmental group. “While some claim the new text is a significant improvement in terms of reconciling positions, disagreements persist over core issues including burden sharing in terms of emission reductions, the ramping up of climate finance, and a plan for irreversible loss and damage,” Norway-based Bellona said in a press release this week.
“Negotiators made significant strides at the Bonn gathering, but a strong COP21 outcome requires a much more vigorous pace,” David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative for the World Resources Institute (WRI), and Joe Thwaites, a research analyst with WRI’s Finance Center, wrote in a WRI blog post this week.
Regardless of the work remaining to be done, the text is workable, French Climate Change Ambassador Laurence Tubiana said in a UNFCCC press release. “We have a manageable text for further work in Paris. While much work remains, the text is a good basis for negotiations and negotiations need to start from the first day of the conference.”
Who Will Foot the Bill?
An ongoing issue remaining unanswered in the draft text is who will fund efforts to meet the climate goals. Bracketed text in the draft notes that “the largest share of historical global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs.”
Furthermore, the text suggests that “developed country Parties and other developed Parties included in Annex II to the Convention shall provide and mobilize new and additional, adequate, predictable, accessible, sustained and scaled-up financial resources to developing countries to enhance the implementation of their policies, strategies, regulations, and action plans and their climate change actions with respect to both mitigation and adaptation.”
Consequences for Noncompliance Unknown
Also undecided is the legal form the agreement will take. The Unites States has pushed for an agreement that is not legally binding, given that a legally binding agreement would have to be ratified by Congress, an unlikely outcome. However, legally binding or not, it has yet to be decided what consequences await countries that do not meet their commitments under the new agreement.
In the lead up the Paris negotiations, countries have been submitting Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), which describe what the countries will pledge to do in the final agreement.
One option described in the text would form a compliance branch to monitor the progress of the member countries. If a country were to fall out of compliance, the organization would issue a declaration of noncompliance and request the development of a compliance action plan.
Another option, according to the draft text, would be an “An International Tribunal of Climate Justice,” which would “address cases of non-compliance of the commitments of developed country Parties on mitigation, adaptation, provision of finance, technology development and transfer and, capacity-building, and transparency of action and support, including through the development of an indicative list of consequences, taking into account the cause, type, degree and frequency of non-compliance.”
Negotiations to address these and other yet-undecided issues will convene again at COP21 on Nov. 30 and are scheduled to conclude on Dec. 11.
