Nuclear power, as a percentage of electric generation, is expected to remain relatively flat despite the Donald Trump administration’s push to reach 400 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2050, according to an April report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2026 report, published April 8, provides projections of what the agency expects to see by 2050 for all energy markets. Nuclear power, which produces around 20% of electricity in the United States, is not expected to boom based on multiple of EIA’s projections.
In most scenarios, EIA does not forecast nuclear power to grow much unless market factors hurt oil and gas supply.
“Nuclear generation remains relatively stable in most scenarios, except for the Low Oil and Gas Supply case, in which the high cost of natural gas significantly enhances nuclear power’s economic competitiveness,” EIA said. “However, the share of nuclear generation declines in all cases considered here, from 17% in 2025 to between 12% and 15% by 2050.”
Importantly, EIA’s models focus upon existing commercial nuclear reactor technology, not potential emerging technology.
EIA said its model only represents the reactor designs of large and small light-water reactors. The National Energy Modeling System is not adjusted to “project the economic competitiveness of technologies still experimental or undergoing development, such as other types of small modular reactors, microreactors, and fusions,” EIA added.