Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) is urging the Donald Trump administration to pursue near-term arms control steps with Russia while opening parallel, if incremental, discussions with China – warning a treaty lapse risks accelerating a destabilizing nuclear competition.
Signed in 2010 by then U.S. and Russian Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which hit its expiration Feb. 5, limits each country to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 deployed missiles and bombers, and 800 non-deployed launchers and bombers. Defense analysts believe the expiration of New START may lead to a new nuclear arms race, especially as Russia backed out of on-site treaty verification inspections in 2023 amid the Joe Biden administration’s support of Ukraine’s efforts to turn back the Russian invasion.
Meanwhile some defense officials, including Thomas Dinanno, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, said last week New START ending was a good thing since it “only covered part of the Russian stockpile and none of the Chinese stockpile.”
In an interview with Exchange Monitor, Garamendi framed the expiration of New START as a pivotal moment that could expand both deployed warheads and delivery systems, including multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles and tactical nuclear weapons.
“The more nuclear weapons that are out there, the more delivery systems that are out there, the more multiple warhead systems that are being deployed, both strategically as well as the tactical weapons, the more insecure the world becomes,” Garamendi said, emphasizing that unconstrained arsenals increase both strategic and operational risks.
Garamendi pointed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated willingness to extend New START provisions for one year as an immediate opportunity the United States has not pursued. He said he has raised the issue with administration and military officials but has seen little indication of urgency. While the administration has indicated that discussions with Russia are ongoing, Garamendi characterized them as lacking priority and not being “pursued aggressively.”
On China, Garamendi said there are no serious arms control talks underway with Xi Jinping’s government, a gap he suggested reflects an “incorrect assumption” in Washington—that any meaningful arms control effort must include Beijing from the outset.
“The administration seems to have a policy that it’s not worthwhile to deal only with Russia, unless China is equally engaged. I personally think that is wrong,” Garamendi said. “I think maybe a better strategy is to pursue the Russia extension of New START and then build on that, and simultaneously, but separately, reach out to China and engage China in a discussion, and recognize that it’s may just be some preliminary discussions, it may be a long, long way from a kind of nuclear arms control that we would ultimately want to have, but we have to start somewhere.”
“It may be step by step… but we have to start somewhere,” Garamendi added, saying even preliminary talks with Beijing would represent progress in an otherwise stalled arms control environment.
Looking ahead, Garamendi said a potential meeting between former Trump and Xi, which he said could happen in “a month or two,” could provide an opening. He cited Trump’s past comments that nuclear weapons are dangerous and said that sentiment could be leveraged to initiate dialogue.
“Trump has opined that nuclear weapons are bad, so take up with Xi Jinping and say, ‘Hey, nuclear weapons are bad, let’s talk about what we’re going to do, what we can’t do,’” Garamendi said. “I would hope that would be on the agenda.”
More broadly, Garamendi tied arms control to his long-standing emphasis on nonproliferation and fiscal restraint in the nuclear enterprise, arguing unchecked modernization and expansion absent diplomatic guardrails could increase both costs and global instability.