Defense Secretary James Mattis on Wednesday reaffirmed the necessity of sustaining all three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad and indicated the “level” of that deterrent is under consideration.
“The need for a nuclear deterrent . . . requires a triad,” Mattis said during a hearing of the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee. “To determine what level a triad must be at, we have a Nuclear Posture Review that’s getting under way.”
Many in the arms control community say the U.S. plan to modernize all three legs of the triad is too costly, projected at $1 trillion over 30 years; some have even suggested eliminating one leg of the triad, arguing that a dyad is sufficient for U.S. deterrence. Military and civilian leaders in both the Obama and Trump administrations, though, have rejected this claim.
The current modernization program involves new ICBMs, strategic bombers, and ballistic missile submarines, along with a new nuclear cruise missile.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) asked Mattis during the hearing to assess the value of a modern land-based nuclear deterrent, noting that Malmstrom Air Force Base in his state houses a third of the nation’s deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, many of them aging.
The Air Force’s Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent Program will replace the decades-old Minuteman III ICBM and is expected to be deployed in the late 2020s. The service has estimated the program will cost more than $62 billion over 30 years in then-year dollars between fiscal 2015 and 2044, while former Defense Department acquisition chief Frank Kendall has said the price tag is roughly $85 billion.
No one has been nominated yet to replace Kendall; the position is temporarily being filled by James MacStravic, formerly the deputy assistant secretary of defense for tactical warfare systems.
The ICBM leg of the triad, Mattis said, “is a very sobering reminder to any enemy that would choose to test us, that we could soak up an awful lot of their nuclear weapons in order to take out a single one of those silos.” A fully capable ICBM force is therefore a stabilizing influence, he said.
