Government and commercial imagery could help fill a void in on-site nuclear inspections, given the upcoming lapse in the New Strategic Arms Reduction (New START) Treaty protocol next February, a new report by the Federation of American Scientists said.
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a nonproliferation-focused nonprofit founded in 1945 by Manhattan Project scientists, has estimated that the global inventory of nuclear warheads is more than 12,000 concentrated in the hands of Russia and the U.S.
“In the midst of the most strained geopolitical environment since the Cuban Missile Crisis—and with the Treaty’s upcoming expiration in February 2026—both Russia and the United States will likely default to mutual distrust and worst case thinking amid fewer verifiable data points,” the new report says. “Transparency and mutual disclosure of data is especially important for the United States, which lacks an alternative window into the much more opaque Russian (and Chinese) nuclear weapons program, that does not publicly share comparable information on the development and capabilities of its systems.”
The report recommended the U.S., Russia and potentially other parties “should pursue a novel, less-intrusive New START successor.” inspired by earlier nuclear arms agreements and, instead of depending on “intrusive on-site inspections,” rely instead on “remote-sensing.”
The report added that the framework for such a treaty is possible by “novel satellite Earth observation technologies that were unavailable when previous arms control treaties were negotiated,” and “by upholding the principle of non-interference to satellite observation and by cooperatively exposing their arms to over-passing satellites, continuity of knowledge could be maintained and nuclear risk reduced with Cooperative Technical Means.”
The New START Treaty, a treaty between the U.S. and Russia signed in 2010 by then-presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, limits each country to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 deployed missiles and bombers, and 800 non-deployed launchers and bombers. Current Russian president Vladimir Putin said in September Moscow would respect the treaty for one year past its expiration date.
Exchange Monitor affiliate Defense Daily first published a version of this story.