While all eyes are on the first meeting of the parties to the Paris Agreement on climate change (CMA1) during the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the most important action will be happening elsewhere, with the Ad hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement (APA), Elliot Diringer, executive vice president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) and an expert on international climate policy and UNFCCC negotiations, told reporters Thursday.
The APA was established in the accord and tasked with preparing a number of draft decisions in four particular areas for implementing the Paris Agreement:
- Guidance relating to parties’ nationally determined contributions;
- “Modalities, procedures and guidelines for the transparency framework for action and support;”
- Modalities for the global emissions stock take; and
- “Modalities and procedures for the effective operation of the mechanism to facilitate implementation and promote compliance.”
These draft decisions were to be prepared before CMA1, but because the Paris Agreement will enter into force much earlier than expected, on Nov. 4, less than one year after its adoption, the APA has not had enough time to prepare them. Its work will continue during COP22, being held in Marrakesh, Morocco, from Nov. 7-18. “I think the most important thing we need to see in Marrakesh is good progress on those implementing decisions. Now, none of those decisions will be adopted in Marrakesh, they will likely all be adopted as a package together,” Diringer said.
The APA will continue its efforts through 2017 and perhaps 2018, setting up the COP following the conclusion of the APA’s work to be historic. “Generally in this process, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. But we will get a good sense in Marrakesh how parties are lining up on these issues, where and how big the differences may be, and hopefully we’ll see good strong progress there and I think all of this is really setting up 2018 as the next big political moment in this process,” according to Diringer.
COP23 will be held in Asia at a location yet to be determined in early November 2017. The location of COP24 is unknown at this time. Depending on what is decided at CMA1, CMA2 may be put on hold until COP24, to allow the APA to finish its work. CMA2 will almost certainly have more parties than CMA1, which is restricted to nations that joined more than 30 days before the event.
Currently, the Paris Agreement has 86 parties, most of which will be able to participate in CMA1. Any nations that join more than 30 days before CMA2 will be able to take part. “I think it does put pressure on other countries to join in because they’ll want to be part of the decision-making in 2018, and it also puts pressure on the parties [of the APA] to wrap up those decision by 2018,” Diringer said. “I’m speaking as if we’re presuming this outcome setting 2018 as the de facto deadline, I think that’s highly likely, but that’s not a done deal yet.”