An analyst with the European Policy Centre (EPC) warned NATO’s evolving defense posture must preserve a credible conventional military presence in Europe, arguing that nuclear guarantees alone are insufficient to deter Russia.
In an op-ed published this week, EPC policy analyst Juraj Majcin said the alliance’s shift toward greater European responsibility for conventional defense — often described as “NATO 3.0” — risks weakening deterrence if it is accompanied by significant reductions in U.S. conventional forces on the continent.
Majcin argued that conventional and nuclear deterrence can work in tandem rather than be interchangeable. U.S. ground, air and naval forces in Europe not only strengthen NATO’s military capabilities but also bolster the credibility of Washington’s extended nuclear deterrent by demonstrating a willingness to defend allies, he said. A diminished conventional presence, he wrote, could instead raise doubts about U.S. commitments during a crisis.
“Conventional and nuclear deterrence are not separate instruments that can be neatly exchanged,” Majcin says. “They are connected parts of the same escalation ladder. Washington cannot expect to remain fully credible in Europe by offering mainly nuclear reassurance while limiting its conventional presence.
The op-ed also calls for European allies to expand investments in advanced conventional capabilities, integrated air and missile defense, and defense industrial capacity. While the United Kingdom and France may assume a larger role in Europe’s nuclear deterrent over time, Majcin argues that strengthening conventional forces remains essential to maintaining a credible deterrence posture against Russia.
This op-ed was published the same week as the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. There, the organization said it would modernize its nuclear capabilities instead, Reuters reported.