An Iranian withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) could destabilize the Middle East nonproliferation regime and prompt regional states to reconsider their treaty commitments, Iran scholar Sina Azodi said Monday.
Speaking at an event hosted by the Stimson Center and moderated by former Iran task force leader Barbara Slavin, Azodi said Tehran leaving the NPT would not necessarily signal the country’s immediate decision to build a nuclear weapon but could weaken global nonproliferation norms and alter regional deterrence calculations.
“If they decide to leave the NPT, this does not mean that they’re going to go for the bomb,” Azodi said. “But I think the whole nonproliferation regime will be severely affected.”
Azodi warned that other Middle Eastern countries could interpret an Iranian withdrawal as justification to persevere in their own nuclear options.
“Then Saudis might think, ‘Okay, why should we stay in the NPT? We can keep our options open,’” Azodi said, adding that the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other regional states could reach similar conclusions.
Azodi said Iran has historically sought to remain inside the NPT while maintaining leverage through uranium enrichment and nuclear advances, distinguishing its approach from countries such as North Korea that withdrew from the treaty.
For a Middle East already shaped by conflict and nuclear tensions, Azodi said an Iranian departure from the NPT “would be very bad.”