A wargame conducted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies suggested that a stand-in, penetrating force of the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber for strategic attack were key to blunting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, a nonpartisan research organization in Washington, is advising the Air Force to buy at least 150 B-21s, according to a report on rebuilding American airpower released by the institute on Thursday.
The B-21 is designed to have the dual capability of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons, which the National Nuclear Security Administration is responsible for producing and maintaining. As of October 2024, the 2025 Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan said the B61-12 life extension program, which completed its last production unit in December 2024, is continuing to certify the B-21 to carry the gravity bomb.
In the wargame set in 2035, two Air Force “blue” teams—one with no F-47s and 28 B-21s and the other with 40 F-47s and 85 B-21s—competed against a “red” “Chinese” team. The “Doolittle” team’s lack of F-47s and its smaller number of B-21s forced it to use up its stock of long-range weapons, as Chinese forces were able to knock out theater airfields, whereas the better-equipped “Mitchell” team was able to conduct strategic attack and counter-air missions inside China that destroyed Chinese airfields and missile sites and disrupted Chinese command and control and anti-satellite attacks.
The report said that future Air Force Collaborative Combat Aircraft, including drones for air-to-air and other missions, are “additive and complementary capabilities but do not replace requirements for advanced piloted aircraft.”
“The USAF must develop a better understanding of strategic attack target sets that would have the greatest effect on China’s operations and decision-making,” the report said. “Players quickly realized this was a serious gap in planning for U.S. strategic strikes against China in a defense-of-Taiwan scenario.”
Exchange Monitor affiliate Defense Daily first published a version of this story.